Joao Rei's random thoughts

According to an interview I caught on BBC Radio, British Airways (BA) and Iberia of Spain are in talks for a possible merger. This would create the world’s third largest airline, and open the way for future mergers within the airline industry.

This is not a new romance story, since 2003 there have been rumors of a possible merger between BA and Iberia, following the merger of Air France and KLM, only this time there isn’t as much opposition to the merger deal as the Economist reminds us, back then Caja Madrid went ahead and bought a stake in Iberia to prevent BA from taking over.

hen AF and KLM merged. In fact this time round many airlines are facing higher fuel costs and their profits are decreasing every quarter. For many this is the only way out of these difficult times, and even Spain’s minister of Economy has said that the merger is a good thing for Spain.

But what is the bottom line?

In Europe this won’t mean much, except maybe less competition on
routes like BCN - LHR, or MAD - LHR

but it will mean better routes for example from MAD - JFK or LHR -
GIG/MEX/EZE (South America)

On the other hand, they already had code-share agreements, so I don’t
really think it will mean much difference in prices for the ticket
prices, what it will mean is a reduction in staff on both companies,
restructuring of some flight schedules, better management of fleet and
lowering the costs of jet fuel acquisition, hopefully higher standards
of baggage handling by Iberia :D

In the end, there’s room for maybe 4 or 5 big airlines in Europe and
maybe 4 low-cost ones.

Lufthansa
AF/KLM (alitalia?)
BA/Iberia
SAS
??

Swiss, Austrian and TAP will most likely be bought by Lufthansa
Finnair will be bought by BA/Iberia?
Aeroflot and Turkish are too peripheral (imho) to become big players in Europe.
If Alitalia won’t merge with AF/KLM I have no idea what will happen to them…

Ryanair
Easyjet
Air Berlin
Wizzair with…???
Vueling with…???

SkyEurope will have to merge with Wizzair or with someone else to
consolidate the market in that region.
Vueling and ClickAir (Iberia) already are talking about cooperation,
although it would be interesting to see Vueling take on southern
europe’s low cost market by association with some Italian lowcost and
a base in Milan (when Alitalia leaves the hub)
That basically covers the whole market for lowcosts, the others will
disappear, there might be room for a true lowcost in the scandinavian,
baltic market (Air baltic IS NOT a lowcost, imho)

anyway, in the end it all depends on the price of oil.

And here we are.

After so much debate in Brussels and elsewhere, and three years after the NO vote of the French to the EU Constitution, the Irish seem to have voted NO as well to the Lisbon Treaty. And this leaves Europe in a standstill (once again). It’s the problem with having to wait for everyone to agree on something. We’re either always stuck waiting for someone, or we get a two-step Europe, with some countries moving forward and others moving more slowly.

Clearly now Europe needs to do something. The options? Either stop to re-think the whole thing. Starting from decision making, the role of its institutions and the role of democracy in such decisions (let us not forget that Ireland has about 3 million voters, and they “decided” on behalf of 400 million of Europeans). The other option is to move fast and swiftly. Forget about those that do not want to be a part of the EU (like the UK) and go ahead with those that want to go ahead.

In my opinion this is a blow for Europe, but one that might make us all, European citizens, think about Europe a bit more than we do in our everyday lives.

Here’s a thought about tradition, and its role in society.

I come from a country that is ridden with tradition, everywhere you look there’s tradition. I came to a country that is relatively new and where tradition does not play such a big role. People here are more open to new ideas, to doing things differently from the way they’ve always seen done before. In other words, innovation, not tradition is the rule here. Whereas in Portugal I felt constrained by tradition, here I feel liberated by innovation. People are not afraid to try out and fail.

Here’s what I really like about living in Tallinn. Classical music, opera, and other kinds of cultural events are readily available, but more importantly, they are really cheap! Prices for students for these kinds of events are usually bellow 10 euros!

In Lisbon I used to go to the theater, and a couple of classical music concerts, but when I did so, it was either because I got free tickets through someone else, or I’d have to pay somewhere closer to 20 or 25 eur for a ticket.

 I just came from a Tchaikovsky concert in the Estonia concert hall. It was brilliant! Seriously, it was the concert I’ve been waiting for for a long time! I love Tchaikovsky, and I’ve always liked his compositions ever since my parents got the Nutcracker and I kept playing it over and over. I simply loved it! They played all of his famous compositions, and it was really a wonderful concert and experience. To top it off, I paid something like 5 euro for the concert, oh, and I bought the tickets on the same day as the concert! In Lisbon the shows usually are sold out weeks if not months before the opening date.

It’s not that I’m complaining about the cultural offer in Lisbon, it was certainly good, diverse and plentiful as well, I guess here in Estonia, or at least in Tallinn, being a smaller city, makes it easier for me to find these things, and to actually go :) 

Following the advice of a good friend of mine, I am trying this out to see how it works